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Posts by "ashraf laidi"
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Posts by Anonymous "ashraf laidi":
I think I may have his email somewhere. Please email me to the address below and cite your name.
Thks
A
Ashraf
sorry for the late reply. Despite the close polls, Im expecting no Brexit. But Ill be going into the market expecting 50-50. No time to be a hero.
A
Ashraf
Beware of March NFPs. They have the worst record than any other month.
The table in the Premium section shows the consistency of misses (actual figure below consensus forecasts) in March NFPs over the last three years. In fact, NFP figures for the month of March have come in below forecasts in 7 out of the last 8 March reports with an average miss of -59k.
http://www.ashraflaidi.com/premium/focus-on-usd
Ashraf
As far academic books:
"Animal Spirits" by Shiller.
"Depression Economics" by krugman.
“The Only Game In Town: Central Banks, Instability and Avoiding the Next Collapse” by El Erian
nextSignals,
Not sure how long the safehaven to USD will last if a new crisis prompts the Fed into easing. Remember: unlike in 2007-08 when the tightening was led by the Europeans and EMs, the Fed at the time was in neutral mode. Today it's the opposite: Fed is in tightening move (if you can call it that) & rest is in easing.
Ashraf
This is a poll about what will the Fed LIKELY do and NOT what it should do in December.
I continue to expect the Fed will stay on hold next month, despite mounting probabilities of a hike, courtesy of the Oct jobs and services ISM. An earnings and manufacturing recession will prove punishing in the event of a rate hike. The Dec outcome will partly depend on the Dec 2nd ECB decision and Dec 3rd US jobs report. EM tensions may have eased since September but the deflationary pressures have already reached the shores of the US and those gains in hourly earnings will prove unsustainable (as they’re already proving to be in the UK). US labour markets have definitely tightened, but inflation remains at 1.3% according to the Fed’s policy gauge of core PCE price index (not 1.6%, 1.5% or 1.9% as it’s widely and erroneously stated).
won’t even mention further declines in CAPEX, gains in high yields and % of US firms downgraded by credit rating agencies.
I could go on, but regular readers of our IMTs have already got the picture.
Ashraf
Mainly SB, as it offers the quick ease to raise & lower leverage.
ETFs are also decent, but these are for longer term trades.
I see your argument about GDP, but for a such a major event to occur (first interest rate hike since 2006), there has to be a press conference scheduled to communicate the rate hike. Sep & Dec meetings have pressers scheduled but not Oct.
The new BIG event is the Fed conference in Jackson Hole due near end of August, when we should have much clarity, before the Aug jobs report due in early Sep.
Ashraf
Fed never "said" anything. They gave indications that September and/or December may be the months to do it. But then again, they "said" the same thing about June 2015 back in March 2015. Anyway, look at where inflation, avg earnings and unemployments are now, compared to the start of the previous 2 tightening cycles.
Ashraf